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  • Morning update

    Low volume chop as we coil for an upcoming big move. Sentiment has dropped down to more neutral levels, bulls want ES to close above 873.75. The low so far is 856, last week's low. Below 852, bears take control.  Right on cue after last night's wrap: ...
  • Tuesday wrap

    ES closes below the November trendline, NQ still holds on. This is the fifth day of selling, but the real problem for bulls is the excessive bullish sentiment, per ISE equity,  going into Christmas. Everyone is jumping on the Santa rally. This is the m...
  • Morning update

    ISE equity has jumped to well over 200. The remaining position on the ES trade is closed for +18 (give or take a point or so depending on entry), leaving only the old QQQQ trade from 25.30 on, with a stop at 27.15. The target for that trade is still just ...
  • Open

    Support holds overnight. ES is now testing 873.75 resistance, and NQ 1203.50. Obvioulsy, the November fibs, as as outlined over the past few weeks, are very much in play. The ES long from yesterday's low is up 20 points, or $1000 per contract. My overall ...
  • Monday wrap

    We get a picture perfect descent right into weekly support as outlined over the weekend, followed by a strong closing bounce on volume. If you shorted the loss of ES 873.75 and reversed long at 853 (see last posts), you had a good day without much effort....
  • Closing session

    ES and NQ are right at November trendline support. ES hits 859, getting very close to the 852 target. Internals are bearish, confirming the drop. 865.25 is now resistance. Weekly S1 for NQ is also a little lower at 1170. This is a very orderly descent to ...
  • Morning update

    Note the intermediary support for ES at 873.75 is the exact low so far (see yesterday's post), so watch that contract. As for NQ, don't forget 1203.50, its 50% Nov. NQ is further up from trendline support, but lower in terms of November retraces. Note tha...
  • Weekend wrap

    Now that we are done with quadruple witching option expiration week, which turned out to be a non-event, the year-end/month end battle goes into fith gear. Volume should taper off as we get closer to Christmas, but the same guidelines apply, since basical...
  • Closing session

    QQQQ pin around 30 is giving us a case of Friday op-ex listless chop. SPX is holding the trendline so far. It's not an interesting trading environment. so we will pick it up Monday. Dec. 19 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. House Financial Services Committee Chairman ...
  • Morning update

    Breakout potential is building. ES 905.50 is the next big hurdle. These events can happen on op-ex Friday but it has to be early on. Right now, internals are getting stronger every minute, the VIX is at lows and SPX is back above 900. As long as the corre...
  • Open

    Financials and energy are a slight drag on ES, but NQ and techs are getting a bid. NQ is now trading above the September down-trendline (it is downward so every day gets lower) but note 10/15 close of 1229 resistance. Internals are more bullish than yeste...
  • Thursday wrap

    Oil could not hold a bid and we ended the day in the red, with SPX closing for the first time in three days below its 10 day moving average. We are still holding the uptrend from November (see chart), but obviously, 905.50 and 61.8% of November is still a...
  • PM update

    The persistent distribution at ES 905.50 finally took its toll, as we drop below 900. NQ is retesting the 5 dma. Internals are neutral but a bearish bias is building. You can't really trust anything during op-ex Thursday, but the daily overbought conditio...
  • Morning update

    Philly Fed Manufacturing index comes in better than expected at -32.9 (-40 expected). update (10:02): Equities are rallying, watch ES 905.50 and NQ 1235.25. Watch oil and 38. ISE equity at 190. There is a hangover coming soon (next week?), but bears sti...
  • Open

    The VIX is right at resistance mentioned last night (47.73). Internals are mildly bullish. This market is looking tired and bulls need to pick up the ball quickly as ES still struggles with 905.50. Watch NQ overnight lows at 1222, also right near the 5 dm...
  • Wednesday wrap

    The VIX keeps dropping, ending the day at the lowest level since November 5 and getting very close to important support (47.73). ES did not make a new high on the VIX new low, normally a bullish divergence although it would have been better to see ES leav...
  • Pre-open

    We had a big drop overnight to NQ 1205, right above 1203.50 support, followed by a snap back bounce to the 50 dma (1233). This range gives traders some very specific parameters. ES is currently trading under 905.50. It could go either way, but ope-ex Wedn...
  • Tuesday wrap

    NQ (NDX futures) moves up to the September downtrend resistance, potentially confirming the bullish bias off the Thursday test of October low and November trendline support. We also closed above the 50 dma for the first time since August. The high was rig...
  • Open

    Pre-FOMC rally. Watch NQ 1203.50 resistance. VIX support is at 55.70. Internals are bullish. I will be out of the office most of today and possibly tomorrow, although I will update. The paramaters are pretty well set with the NQ and ES chart I posted the...
  • Monday wrap

    ES and NQ hold the November uptrend, as ES manages a decent closing bounce on volume after hitting the 20 dma at 857. So far, we are still within a bull flaggish pattern, but we need to see an upside break tomorrow. ES 873.75, 50% November is the number t...