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  • FOMC retrace

    The bulls have pretty much erased the post FOMC losses, thanks to stimulus optimism. Friday's bullish SPX candle was the same as the 28th of January, pre-FOMC squeeze and headfake. The potential head and shoulder NDX pattern has now been negated, with sup...
  • Dollar bets

    If you trade crude, or any commodity, you need to heed it. If you trade equities, you need to watch commodities. In that spirit, it's time to take a look at EUR/USD futures. The coil of the past few days is not quite as present in the EC chart as in the C...
  • The waiting game

    Oil still holds on to the 40 level and SPX manages to stay clear of 800. We await ISM, challenger job cuts and oil inventories tomorrow. The big event, as always on the first week of the month, is the jobs report on Friday. SPX did a late day drive righ...
  • On Crude watch

    The chart of the March crude oil contract (CL/QM) is coiling for another important move. Currently chopping just above the January gap (36.50/40.85) within a narrow band that encompasses two 50% retraces. The primary one is 50% 2009 (41.85) and the secon...
  • Thursday wrap

    Window dressing and assorted noise has kept the attention away from oil, but it is still an important catalyst for the equity markets. Energy consumption is the driving force of the economy. The CL/QM (crude oil futures) March contract is running into a ...
  • Wednesday wrap

    Straight up, with hardly a pulback, then after the Feds we get a drop, but SPX still holds the reconquered 50 day moving average ( 867.50). However, there could be an ominous set up forming if bulls cannot capitalize strongly on this rally. NDX/QQQQ/COMP ...
  • Yields, oil and window dressing

    The oil rally ended abruptly today, closing a hair above 50% 2009 (41.85), but with a bearish engulfing candle that took out three days of rallying. This move also coincided with a bond bid that ended the yield on the ten year note rally after it hit 50 d...
  • Is oil breaking out?

    Friday started badly for oil bulls. But copper was on a run early on and eventually the March crude contract took off, pushing above 61.8% 2009 (43.88), resting at the close just above 76.4% 2009 and above the 50 day moving average for the first time in ...
  • SPX update

    The COMP barely holds the 1464 level, closing at 1465.49 (see yesterday's chart). The 2 PM turn saw a waterfall decline that was somewhat halted in the final hour, saving the day from total collapse. However, SPX closes below 838, 50% of 1982/2007 (the s...
  • Wednesday update

    The COMP holds on to the April 2003 closing support level of 1464 (red line). It was almost eclipsed yesterday, but a bid in oil and the IBM news kept bulls alive, not to mention the excessive bearish sentiment. AAPL does well after hours, but still stuck...
  • Tuesday update

    It was a party on Pennsylvania Avenue, but not on Wall Street. The selling picked up even more steam after Obama's speech, helped in no small part by weak volume. The DOW closed under 8000 for the first time since November and NDX could not hold the Octob...
  • Weekend wrap

    The rally off November lows stumbled pretty hard the past two weeks. Once the dust settled, the damage was more apparent with the DOW and SPX. NDX/QQQQ managed to close above 50% November, the NASDAQ found resistance there (1540.66, high was 1538.82). Tha...
  • Thursday update

    Another typical option expiration Thursday until around 12:40 when buyers started stepping in once it was clear that the October lows for the COMP and NDX/QQQQ were holding. In fact QQQQ almost hit the mark to the penny at 28.07, October lows are 28.09. W...
  • Wednesday wrap

    Retail sales kicked the day off on a very sour note, immediately impacting oil. Crude oil inventories were actually lower than the 2.1M expected, coming in at 1.2M. Nevertheless, the February contract came down to retest January contract lows (made in Dec...
  • SMH update

    Semi-conductors (SMH) holding on to 50% of the rally off November lows at 16.91. Even the bad news from NVDA could not break that support, in fact NVDA ended the day up. But the real big gun is INTC on Thursday. Semis, along with financials, are the backb...
  • Monday wrap

    NQ (NDX futures)overshot weekly S1 (1196) to the downside but managed a comeback 15 mns into the close, pushing back above the 1203.50 level, 50% November. How many times have we been here the past month? In the overnight session, we are trading above the...
  • Weekend wrap

    The pre-option expiration week pullback has been pretty orderly. The news was terrible, but the selling was not as impulsive and violent as we saw last year. SPX found a perfect top at 944, 76.4% November and proceeded to make its way down to the 50 dma (...
  • Thursday wrap

    Last minute covering put SPX back above 61.8% November at 905.71, close was 909.73. I keep mentioning these Fibonacci levels, because we are still in an inside month from November. The COMP bounced right off its 10 day moving average and also closed above...
  • NASDAQ update

    The COMP also found resistance yesterday at 76.4% November, and proceeded to correct to 61.8% (1598.50). SPX closed right above that number as well (905.71, close was 906.65), so the battle over those November fibs seems to be taking center stage, much mo...
  • SPX update

    The action is starting to fell toppy and the closing candles reflected it. SPX pretty much hit 76.4% of November (944.62, high was 943.85) and proceeded to retreat, following the footsteps of oil, which is having a hard time staying above 50. We have b...