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  • NDX (Nasdaq 100) update

    The tech heavy NDX  is bumping up against the downward trend line off the 2000 high, which was established in 2007 and confirmed with subsequent failures in 2008. Note also the almost precise rejection last week at 50% 2007/2008 (1629.05). What bulls h...
  • TNX (ten year yield) update

    The TNX weekly chart gives us a clear picture of the current range. The double bottom in early July off the January 2008 low and 38.2% 2007/2009 at 3.29% is obvious support. Resistance is just as strong at the June high of 4.014%, with a shooting star o...
  • Is the wall of worry back?

    Is the wall of worry back? More importantly, is it back enough? One thing is certain, I can't remember a time when a head and shoulder (SPX) was so broadly publicized. We were given two important clues last week, and it was not the break of the neckline. ...
  • SPX: that pesky trendline resistance

    The battle at the SPX trendline resistance off May 2008 highs (chart) has been a fierce one since June. But every time bulls seem to get a clear shot at breaking out, we pull back in what now appears to be a couple of vicious bull traps. Thursday's heavy ...
  • Yields on the ten year (TNX)

    The bear market high for TNX was at 4.324%, the equity rally off the March 2009 lows stalled when yields on the ten year tagged 4%. Not coincidentally, this year's high also lined up with 50% 2002/2007 for NDX/QQQQ(see our warning two weeks ago). As usual...
  • NDX hits the big one and pulls back.

    There are many theories and charts floating around, mostly for SPX. But barely a word on what was probably the most critical retrace of the year (noted right away on the Live Monitor). NQ (NDX futures) hit a high of 1517.75 this week, which was within tw...
  • Nasdaq update

    As mentioned a couple of weeks ago (see Parallels), the March 2009 rally bares many similarities to the March 2008 rally. In fact, the June 5 high for SPX came on the same date in 2008. What could be different this time around, aside from the sheer magn...
  • Parallels

    The NDX March/May 2009 chart bares an eerie resemblance to the March/May 2008 chart. Both rallies start at year lows in March, move back up above the 200 day moving averages in May and proceed with a consolidation period. The three days leading into Memor...
  • NDX update

    NDX raised the alarm bells a little over a week ago (see the May 9 article), eventually managing to pull SPX down. During the week, we saw continued optimism in the face of deteriorating technicals, as measured by equity option sentiment, ensuring a drop ...
  • SPX update

    On May 6 (a cycle turn date), NDX (Nasdaq 100) put in a high and started correcting. SPX, thanks to financials and energy, kept climbing, diverging with techs. This is raising some eyebrows, especially the week before option expiration week. SPX is now ap...
  • RUT (small caps) update

    In 2002, the RUT found support at its 200 monthly exponential moving average (as did SPX). That same moving average is now clear resistance on the monthly chart. The first rally attempt in December 2008 failed right at that level. In January, we briefly w...
  • SMH update (semiconductors)

    When stocks rally, we look at techs and when techs rally we look at semiconductors. It has not been very smooth sailing for that sector when compared to the Nasdaq 100. The month of April has seen some pretty violent moves for SMH (semiconductor ETF), esp...
  • QQQQ update

    Six weeks of straight rallying brings QQQQ back to familiar ground, the wasteland of mid-October/November 2008 highs. It took us an equal amount of months (six) to make the round trip. Why is this area significant? Because QQQQ 33.30 is also 61.8% 2002/20...
  • Oil clues

    Since the last article posted on the public site, SPX closed the gap at 826 (one of the upside targets) and held on to those gains during the G20 week. Bulls stayed firmly in control, side-stepping bad news and running with the slightest beat of already v...
  • Crossroads

    A bear market rally's goal is to get enough people to believe a bottom is in, then turn around and liquidate more inventory. Predictably, SPX rallied up to the 800 level of resistance, 50 day moving average, but more importantly 50% of 2009 (805, high was...
  • SPX update

    Tuesday's SPX low of 666.79 was no chance event. It had two major confluences, the first one being 61.8% of the 1982/2007 secular bull market, the second a 100% projection of the head and shoulder, or January high/low. The bounce is powerful, pushing us ...
  • Will oil's double bottom hold?

    January was a key month for oil. Not only did we make a low not seen since April 2004 (33.30), but we also established a strong area of resistance for the year so far at 50. There are several factors at play on the chart right now. The obvious one is the ...
  • DOW loses a key level

    Last week, we commented on the SPX closing loss of 839, 50% of the 1982/2007 secular bull market, this week it was the DOW's turn. At 7484, it was a support area in November. Friday's close puts us below that level on a closing basis for the first time si...
  • SPX at trendline. Again.

    The S&P 500 chopped around this week after the big Tuesday sell-off, sucessfully testing the trendline off November lows three days in a row. However, Friday's close was borderline and many funds are starting to get nervous as we sit right on the edge...
  • Back in the danger zone

    SPX put up a valiant effort to get past its 50 day moving average, but overbought/optimistic conditions quietly crept up on the markets, setting up a "sell the news event" with the stimulus package. The content of the bill was almost irrelevant, especial...