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  • Morning update:

    A second attack by bears (or weak longs) is kicking is as NQ battles 1203.50. TNX is still stuck under 2.72%. Gap closes are NQ 1176.75 and ES 871.75. Internals are still very strong. update (10:24): bulls hold 1203.50. Note the DOW approaching its 50 dm...
  • Open

    We are getting strong follow through from Friday, even oil, which is above 42.90. NQ has pushed through 1200 resistance, tagging weekly R1 at 1214. Bonds are selling, but watch TNX 2.72%. The VIX has dropped below its 50 dma, a move this week below 54.92 ...
  • Bonds: a change in course?

    There was a shift in the oil/stock relationship Friday and it all had to do with bonds. CL dropped to a low of 40.50, losing 42.90 support, but stocks rallied nevertheless. The trigger was the ten year note hitting 2.508% early in the day and turning arou...
  • Closing hour

    Quite a turnaround as the DOW now trades back above 8480 (50% Nov), ES and NQ above weekly pivots. Oil is still down at 41.50, but the trade that mattered was following bonds, which were selling from the start. The markets are going to start pricing in th...
  • PM update

    The bullish divergences continue, with bonds selling and financials up, even though stocks and oil are down. ES not making new lows as oil kept moving lower was our tip-off. This is getting interesting and could lead to a closing short squeeze. The key wi...
  • Morning update

    The computers are set to trade hand in hand with oil (especially those quantum funds) and as CL loses 42, ES loses 820. The VIX has moved up above 66.20 and AD lines are -2000. Note that weekly S3 (!) for CL is at 43.38. If the contract can regain 42+, th...
  • Open

    The jobs report is a disaster, much worse than even the whisper number. Nevertheless, NQ is still hanging on to weekly S1 and the April 2003 close (1108). ES is also holding on to weekly S1. But the most interesting development is the drop in bonds, with ...
  • Thursday wrap: oil reaches downside target

    Stocks have been trading in tandem with oil, so it's no surprise we had a drop at the close when oil fell to a low of 43.36. I suggested waiting for this price zone on Tuesday, when we were still at 48/50. Using a continuous CL monthly future's contract, ...
  • PM update

    The predictable chop within the ES 850/875 range continues. Oil (CL/QM) is getting very close to my buy target (43/43.50), with a print of 43.77. There is an underthrow potential to 42.90, but buying 43 or so should bear fruit....
  • Open

    Shorting ES 874 overnight, exiting at support (851 or close) and buying there for a quick long is enough for the day as far as I'm concerned. If you want to keep trading, the parameters are set, anything in between could chop you to death. Note the VIX s...
  • Pre-open

    If you were up, shorting ES/NQ was a good catch. Note the support at ES 851 and NQ 1136.75. Any trade before tomorrow's job report should be just a trade, nothing to hold on to. This market rewards the frugal, not the greedy (except for the remaining QQQQ...
  • Overnight session (2)

    If you are trading this, ES is just hitting 50% November resistance at 874 and NQ its 20 dma at 1166.50. ...
  • Overnight session

    I'm back at the terminals a little late today. Needless to say, we had a bullish day in the face of bad news. NQ and ES are trading around their weekly pivots. Financials and semis were both up, a bullish sign, volume was stronger than yesterday. NDX is s...
  • Morning update

    ES holds weekly S1 (820, low so far is 826) and NQ is making abid back above 1108. Watch those morning gap closes and TNX 2.71. I will be out of the office today (...I know: the out of the office indicator...)...
  • Pre-open

    ADP employment report drops to -250K, expectations were for -200K. This has brought NQ down to weekly S1. ES is still above its weekly S1, but 851 resistance is firmly in place. ISM non-manufacturing due at 10. Watch the NQ November gap when we open (1084...
  • Tuesday wrap: the incredible shrinking yields

    A choppy session suddenly turned very bullish in the last 10 minutes of trading, pushing NQ (NDX futures) right up to 1136.75 resistance (October lows). Note the perfect double bottom for ES (SPX futures) at 813. The VIX stalled at its 10 dma and could be...
  • PM update

    The oil drop is too much pressure and we pull back to weekly S1's again. AD lines are still positive, but it looks like any rally will be somewhat subdued ahead of the jobs report. The early morning chop is back. NQ needs to close above 1108, the April 20...
  • Noon update

    Full steam ahead for bulls as we move past every 10 dma out there, incuding financials (XLF). Internals are bullish. Next resistance is 1136.75 for NQ and 851 for ES. Support is now NQ 1124....
  • Morning update

    After an opening test of overnight lows, the Tuesday reversal is back, now reaching overnight highs.  With bonds selling, bulls are in control, at least for now. Even oil has reversed to the upside, although marginally. RIMM is still a big drag on NDX....
  • Open

    NQ now testing the lows, 1085 needs to hold. We tested the 10 dma overnight (1124), but the open was met with some distribution. Bonds have reversed course, but oil is still down, giving us a choppy session. Internals are positive. Some big tech stocks ar...