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  • Morning update

    We keep chopping around at the lower end of the range, as internals get weaker. The close will tell us more, but for now the prognosis is bearish. Trendline support has moved up to just under 1150 for NQ, right at weekly S1 (1148.75). A good spot to switc...
  • Open

    Monday morning pullback, watch ES 873.75 and NQ 1185 interim support. TNX is once again flirting with 2.5%. Watch QQQQ 29 as well, a little lower. Dec. 15 (Bloomberg) -- OPEC, the producer of 42 percent of the world's oil, may make the biggest supply cut...
  • Weekend wrap

    As is often the case, focusing on the tech heavy NDX (Nasdaq 100) and its futures gives us the most reliable clues. As you can see on the chart, 50% November at 1203.50 is a decisive fulcrum. But more importantly, Thursday night's bad news drove NQ down t...
  • Closing hour

    It looks like QQQQ 29 is the potential op-ex low going into next week, especially if NQ can close the day above 1203.50. Buyers are showing up on dips. Bulls lose it below NQ 1177....
  • Morning update

    Closing the NQ short from 1193 at 1180, as we approach 1176.75 support. It's also QQQQ 29, until we see how low they take those, it's best to not get too greedy. Internals are weak, but watch VIX resistance at 58.75. Oil drops, but that 43 level is still ...
  • Open

    NQ October low was the overnight low and the damage is somewhat restrained. Gone are the -500 DOW days, at least for now. Those low yielding treasuries are providing a floor. ES has weekly pivot resistance at 861, watch NQ 1176.75 as well. 1193.25 is a sc...
  • Overnight session

    The Auto rescue package dies, and we immediately lose 38.2% November support for both ES and NQ (842/1160). A test of October lows looks likely at this point (NQ 1136.75). Pivots: link. Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Senate negotiations for a U.S. automaker bai...
  • Thursday wrap

    Regular readers know that there is a tendency for stocks to correct in a nasty way the Thursday or Friday before option expiration week and the last few hours of trading obliged. NQ (NDX futures) closed Monday's gap where it found support (1176.75, see 60...
  • Noon update

    Oil is catching a strong bid, now at 47. Financials are weak, semis are strong. Watch ES 905.50 resistance and NQ 1235/1240. The DOW is knocking on 50 dma resistance (8825) for the fourth day in a row. Consolidation near highs is normally very bullish, bu...
  • Morning update

    We keep chopping around above support, namely 50% November. NQ is now trading back above weekly R1, but ES is still stuck in Monday's gap (871.75 / 898.75). The overbought conditions are only marginally alleviated. No one is committing until we see what t...
  • Wednesday wrap

    There is not much to say about today's session, which ended in another Doji for NDX/QQQQ as we consolidate above their May 2003 close (1197.89 for NDX, 29.79 QQQQ). NQ 50% November is hanging in there, today's exact low (1203.50). Monday's gaps are still ...
  • Open

    So far NQ is holding weekly R1 after closing the morning's gap, but ES is still stumbling at the key 905.50 level. This market looks a little tired given the recent gains. Oil is getting another bid above 43, inventories are due at 10:35. Be mindful that ...
  • Overnight session

    Futures catch a bid, resistance is 1238.50 for NQ, 904/905.50 for ES and 8850 for YM. Dec. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Congressional Democrats and White House negotiators agreed on the outlines of a $15 billion plan to give General Motors Corp. and Chrysler LLC fed...
  • Tuesday wrap

    The overbought conditions and a bond bid, pushing yields on the ten year back down below 2.72%, conspired to give us a negative close. The one bright spot was the semi-conductor group with SMH up 4.3%, thanks to a strong showing by INTC and TXN. The DOW f...
  • Morning update

    Pending home sales come in at -.7%, versus -3.2% expected. NQ is holding ground. It is normally quite bullish to see techs and semis lead the way. Watch 1226, overnight high. Update (11:41): QQQQ runs up some more, but stalls at 30.83, shy of the 50 dma....
  • Open

    Support outlined last night is holding so far, as TXN actually gets a bid after the lowered estimates. This is helping the valuation crowd's theory. VIX resistance is at 59.40. We await pending home sales at 10. Watch INTC 14.25 resistance. Dec. 9 (Bloom...
  • Monday wrap: NQ (NDX futures) update

    When the train supposedly leaves the station, the first group we check is NDX/QQQQ and big cap techs. There is a very specific zone centered around NQ (NDX futures) 1199/1206 that is key to this rally. Using a continuous contract, 1199 is the May 2003 clo...
  • Close

    The DOW does not quite make a close above the 50 dma, ending the day at 8934, still a respectable show of force. TNX closed at 2.734%, setting up more selling in bonds. ES ended the day right under 905.50, which could be resistance in the overnight sessio...
  • Closing session

    The rally holds up, although ES is having a small struggle with 905.50. NQ is trading above weekly S1. Internals are still quite bullish, although slightly off the opening highs. Oil is holding 42.90 support, now at 43.75. Copper is also on a tear, up alm...
  • Noon update

    Bulls are firmly in charge. The yield on the ten year has moved up to 2.74% as investors keep rotating out of bonds. NQ resistance is between 1228.50 and 1234.50. The DOW moved above its 50 dma for the first time since September. The close is what counts,...