DOW key retracements

thumb_11.10.09_index_indu_w_--_dow_jones_industrial_averageWe are very close to another important market event, and that is DOW 10334, 50% of the bear market. The DOW can be quite the precision machine when it comes to retraces. The January 2009 high was 38.2% of the 25 year bull market (1982/2007) at 9068 (high was 9088), the November 2008 low was 50% of the same bull market (7484) and 38.2% of the current bear at 9422 was precise support this October. Internals are not something to cheer about. Small caps are lagging, oil is not making new year highs and EUR/USD is not gaining traction above 1.50, at least for now. Equity option sentiment remains quite optimistic, when we should be facing a mounting wall of worry. But NDX did manage a close above 1773, 61.8% of the bear market and even though it is doing so with negative internals for the overall Nasdaq, we could be setting up a test of DOW 10334 in the near future. This would be a classic retracement for a bear market and failure to hold ground above could set in motion the macro trend, which is still a potentially vicious bear. A close above sets off a run to trendline resistance off the 2007 high, currently right above 10500.