EUR/USD update

thumb_8.23.09_cme_6e_f_d_--_euro_futures_-_globex_delay10Currencies can go wild in the summer, but it is in no way indictative of the trend into the fall. The Euro enjoyed a nice run last week against the dollar, with September futures (Globex) closing right under the June high of 1.4338.  Looming right above is the trendline resistance off the December 2008 blow-off top of 1.4687. The lower dollar has driven oil back up to the mid 70's, dragging equities along for the ride. It will be critical going forward to keep monitoring the dollar, especially the EUR/USD pair. The NQ (NDX futures) continuous contract tagged 50% 2007/2008 for a second time (1637) on Friday. A strong push higher sets up a potential NDX run to 1670/1672, failure could confirm a double top. This has been a time to trade light, as is often the case in August.