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  • Falling knife

    The falling knife award of Nov/Dec does not belong to the Euro (although a close second and the month is not over yet), but bonds and treasuries. Anyone that tried to pick a bottom during the drop got their head handed on a platter. Where do we look for s...
  • Retest

    Quite a rally from the September breakout. NQ (NDX futures) easily marched past its April 26 highs (2057.25), resistance now turned support. As a general rule, SPX will follow in the tracks of NDX, a warning to traders to not get short until that target...
  • Breakout

    The breakout on September 9 from the summer triangle is now solidly confirmed with a push by NQ (NDX futures) well above the August 9 high of 1916.25 (nice clean 30 day cycle). Intraday support is at 1921, 61.8% 2010 and if we can hold that level on a clo...
  • Update

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  • Breakdown

    We get the retest of the 1170 breakout (see the last month's article), unfortunately it failed and in a spectacular way. SPX (monthly chart) held the 10 month moving average on Thursday's collapse, but we closed the week below 50% 2007/2009 (1121). What i...
  • Retest of breakout?

    The end of March congestion zone of SPX 1170/1175 should be retested following its breakout in early April. As pointed out last month, it was a key battle in 2002, in 2004, 2005 and 2008. It is almost more relevant than the much touted 1150 level. Friday'...
  • SPX at crossroads. Again.

    Is there a trader, pundit, talking head, even perma-bear that does not regard SPX 1200/1228 as a fait accomplit before Q2 ends? To some of us battle scared traders, that either means we don't see it when planned, or we shoot right past it. But believe it ...
  • SPX at crossroads

    On February 5th, we noted a key inflexion point for the markets with NDX closing back above the critical 1744 level after correcting 10% off the January highs. One month later, and on the anniversary of last year's hammer low, SPX tags the same long term ...
  • NDX, a key retrace and the 200 weekly

    NDX (Nasdaq 100) is at an interesting inflexion point, after having corrected 10% off the January highs. Friday's decline was swift, but the tech heavy index managed to snap back and get a close, once again, above the critical 1744 level, which represe...
  • TNX update

    Since our October article on yields, TNX ( ten year note rate) has climbed from a low of 3.10% to a high of 3.91% at the close of 2009 trading. Not suprisingly, the dollar kicked off a strong rally, which we charted early on last month. For the past fiv...
  • Is the dollar about to rally?

    Equity markets bounced back up to pre-Dubai Thanksgiving levels, but DXY (Dollar index) did not make a new low. The chart clearly shows a descending wedge, which can be a precursor to a turning point. A close above 75.50 would seal it for dollar bulls (...
  • DOW key retracements

    We are very close to another important market event, and that is DOW 10334, 50% of the bear market. The DOW can be quite the precision machine when it comes to retraces. The January 2009 high was 38.2% of the 25 year bull market (1982/2007) at 9068 (h...
  • Once again, spotlight on the dollar

    Keeping track of the dollar remains the single most important factor in the current rally off March lows and the pair to watch is EUR/USD. Global currency reserves are 64% in US dollars and 26.5% in Euros (source IMF). The dollar has fluctuated between 59...
  • TNX: interest rates on the rise?

    In what could be a major turning point on the interest rate landscape, TNX hit 50% of the bear market at 3.18% and bounced sharply at week's end to close at 3.384%. Further confirmation was the almost exact low at the 50 week moving average (chart). Home ...
  • Trading futures: NQ (NDX e-mini)

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  • The dollar at crossroads

    The US dollar index, which measure the performance of USD against EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, CHF and SEK, is trading right at the October 2007 closing price of 76.52. October 2007 was when the DOW and SPX made all time highs (10/11/2007) and this week's close (...
  • NDX update (2)

    A couple of weeks ago, NDX almost closed the September gap (1672) and proceeded to drop on volume for four days. However, bulls rallied back (on lower volume) to actually close that gap and some, approaching another key level of resistance, namely the 2...
  • NDX update

    Last week, we noted that if NQ (NDX futures) made a strong break above 1637, we would have updside risk to NDX 1670/1672. Friday's blow-off tagged 1668, just a few ticks shy of the September 26 2008 gap of 1672.04 (QQQQ was more precise, that same gap is ...
  • EUR/USD update

    Currencies can go wild in the summer, but it is in no way indictative of the trend into the fall. The Euro enjoyed a nice run last week against the dollar, with September futures (Globex) closing right under the June high of 1.4338.  Looming right abov...
  • DOW update

    Note that the DOW is trading under the old 2000 downward trendline resistance , which was broken to the upside in 2005, only to re-emerge in 2008 as a struggle for bulls. We are right there again, albeit lower, and why DOW 9422 (38.2% 2007/2008) holds...