PM update:
NQ pretty much closes the gap, but QQQQ/NDX still off that mark (47.56/1933). The DOW hits 11750, 2000 high. Time to start thinking short, we are at or near my targets. The YM gap close is at 11800, so there is still room. The VIX is not making new lows for the week on this new high.
I must say, the readers on this site are savvy (or very polite) as I never once got an insulting comment when I called for a rally up to these levels a few weeks ago. Just reading the trashing Hulbert or anyone else gets on CBS MW if they dared say anything bullish makes me wince. It has been a good contrarian signal, but now we must remember that we are in a bear market and exercize caution if long.
NQ pretty much closes the gap, but QQQQ/NDX still off that mark (47.56/1933). The DOW hits 11750, 2000 high. Time to start thinking short, we are at or near my targets. The YM gap close is at 11800, so there is still room. The VIX is not making new lows for the week on this new high.
I must say, the readers on this site are savvy (or very polite) as I never once got an insulting comment when I called for a rally up to these levels a few weeks ago. Just reading the trashing Hulbert or anyone else gets on CBS MW if they dared say anything bullish makes me wince. It has been a good contrarian signal, but now we must remember that we are in a bear market and exercize caution if long.
This entry was posted
on Friday, August 08, 2008 at 8/08/2008 02:33:00 PM.
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8/8/08 2:59 PM:)
I think that's because you back up your comments very well with both technical and other analyses, and you are not out there to stir a response!
Also, in the previous comment, I meant that specifically VXN of 20 (not VIX) would signal the ultimate summer top.
8/8/08 4:08 PM
Always nice to hear that:)
8/8/08 4:14 PM
Hi Marc;
Can you elaborate on 'cyclical summer high'?
Ed
8/8/08 7:33 PM
Hi Edward,
I don't really use cycles but when they coincide with price, I throw them in the pot. For NDX, an equal length projection off Oct/Mar points to this week. We are also in week three (a Gann number) after the July bottom. The only caveat is that last week was 39 weeks from October high, another Gann number.
I also have my own set of guidelines regarding calendar trades which are proprietary. Suffice it t say that between now and the 15th, there is a strong chance of putting in a multi-week top.
I want to be clear that I am NOT saying we have not put in the lows this year. I am playing a summer range without too much preconception. We go up and close major gaps within a time period, I take the trade. We will pick it up next week.
In the new site, I will clearly give you intraday signals, profiling my trades. It might help a little more.
8/9/08 11:25 AM
Hi Marc,
Your trading and commentary are the most unbiased I read on a consistent basis. I like to keep grounded and your site does just that. Thanks, Dave
8/9/08 12:24 PM
Thank you!
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