Here are two sets of crude projections: from last month and last year. This tells you how important the 124.50/125 level was, confluence 50% projection 2007 and 23.6% April. But even more striking is the 130.15/130.70 level, which is 61.8% 2007 and 50% April. In other words, the area between 125 and 130 could be the toughest battle oil bulls will face this year.
The 2007 projections are very much in play, as you can see on the chart: 23.6% at 111.75, 38.2% at 119 and 50% at 124.85 (not so obvious on this weekly chart, but it is on the daily). So use these projections as your guide. The more I look at this chart, the more I think 130 is what will break this rally.
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on Friday, May 09, 2008 at 5/09/2008 08:31:00 PM.
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